2026-09-17__14-20-31

skills/bundesliga-fantasy-trader/evals/regression

sourishkrout/skillsIndexed 9/19/26, 9:49 AMOverview
Reward
1.00
Status
completed
Duration
5m 39s
Cost
$0.52
Tokens
423,222
Comparison
See how the candidate performs against the baseline.
Base
2026-09-17__13-12-02 (87c56d8)
Candidate
2026-09-17__14-20-31 (87c56d8)
Reward delta
+0.16
Metadata
match
Rewards
Rewards below 1 appear first. Values are shown as raw decimals.
Reward
reward
1.00
Reward dimensions
artifact_writtenProgrammatic1.00
sourishkrout/bundesliga-fantasy-trader_end-to-end1.00
report_artifact_written1.00

artifact_written

budget_and_state_safetyLLM judge1.00
sourishkrout/bundesliga-fantasy-trader_end-to-end1.00

The report handles every dimension of the rubric correctly. (1) Budget: it consistently uses 3.34M as the spendable bank and explicitly says '155.13M displayed squad market value … is context only and is not used to infer missing sell values'; it never treats the squad value as cash. (2) Price tiering: it labels 3.34M bank as 'high — observed in the app at the cutoff'; Juranović 6.43M as 'low for affordability — observed market quote from September 11, not his current sell value'; and all other prices as 'low/medium — September 14 model estimates, not live app values'. Unknown sell values for Juranović and Ebnoutalib are stated as unknown rather than invented. (3) Feasibility arithmetic: the preferred package shows the exact proxy arithmetic (0.17M buffer), the live-value inequality (S_Juranović + S_Ebnoutalib + 3.34 ≥ P_Katić + P_Hložek), and the minimum combined sell threshold of 11.76M. The result is correctly described as 'conditionally feasible in the live app', not certain. (4) Fallback: the cheaper Pieringer fallback carries its own affordability condition with a separate minimum combined sell of 5.56M, triggered only if the preferred inequality fails. (5) Transfer allowance: 2/5 used for both packages, 3 remaining; within the 5-transfer limit. (6) Positional ranges: squad stays at 2 GK / 4 DEF / 6 MID / 3 FOR after transfers, satisfying the 4–6 defender squad requirement while the 3-5-2 Top 11 legally fields three starting defenders. (7) Club limit: explicitly checked at maximum 2 from any club, below the 3-player cap. (8) Execution language: every transfer is labeled 'Proposed' and the report states 'Nothing above has been executed; every transfer remains Proposed'. All criteria are fully satisfied.

rate_whether_the_report_handles_budget_u1.00

Rate whether the report handles budget uncertainty, roster legality, and mutable state safely. Full credit requires treating 3.34M as the spendable bank and 155.13M only as squad market value, never as cash; distinguishing observed, dated estimated, and unknown live prices without inventing values; and expressing preferred-package feasibility with correct arithmetic or an exact inequality or threshold. Any cheaper fallback should have its own affordability condition when price uncertainty matters. The report should preserve the five-transfer allowance, allowed positional ranges, and three-player club limit, and it must keep all moves proposed rather than claiming execution or completion. Accept any clear natural-language formulation; do not require words such as 'threshold', 'not spendable', or a particular equation layout. Remember that the squad must own 4–6 defenders, but a legal 3-5-2 Top 11 formation uses three starting defenders.

Judge model
anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-6
Judge mode
batched
Reasoning effort
medium
Timeout
300s
Full judge output
{"score":5,"reasoning":"The report handles every dimension of the rubric correctly. (1) Budget: it consistently uses 3.34M as the spendable bank and explicitly says '155.13M displayed squad market value … is context only and is not used to infer missing sell values'; it never treats the squad value as cash. (2) Price tiering: it labels 3.34M bank as 'high — observed in the app at the cutoff'; Juranović 6.43M as 'low for affordability — observed market quote from September 11, not his current sell value'; and all other prices as 'low/medium — September 14 model estimates, not live app values'. Unknown sell values for Juranović and Ebnoutalib are stated as unknown rather than invented. (3) Feasibility arithmetic: the preferred package shows the exact proxy arithmetic (0.17M buffer), the live-value inequality (S_Juranović + S_Ebnoutalib + 3.34 ≥ P_Katić + P_Hložek), and the minimum combined sell threshold of 11.76M. The result is correctly described as 'conditionally feasible in the live app', not certain. (4) Fallback: the cheaper Pieringer fallback carries its own affordability condition with a separate minimum combined sell of 5.56M, triggered only if the preferred inequality fails. (5) Transfer allowance: 2/5 used for both packages, 3 remaining; within the 5-transfer limit. (6) Positional ranges: squad stays at 2 GK / 4 DEF / 6 MID / 3 FOR after transfers, satisfying the 4–6 defender squad requirement while the 3-5-2 Top 11 legally fields three starting defenders. (7) Club limit: explicitly checked at maximum 2 from any club, below the 3-player cap. (8) Execution language: every transfer is labeled 'Proposed' and the report states 'Nothing above has been executed; every transfer remains Proposed'. All criteria are fully satisfied."}
decision_qualityLLM judge1.00
sourishkrout/bundesliga-fantasy-trader_end-to-end1.00

This report satisfies every criterion at a high standard. The squad audit is complete, covering all 15 players with individual hold/transfer reasoning tied to specific evidence. The two transfer priorities are tightly evidence-backed: Ebnoutalib's 60 projected points / 30 projected minutes / 0.25 starter factor is the clearest documented minutes problem, and Juranović's Union side visiting a Bayern projected for 88.6% win probability and 3.81 xG is well-supported. Both transfers are concrete player-out-to-player-in pairs. The five-transfer allowance is preserved (2/5 used). The 15-player composition after the preferred package (2 GK / 4 DEF / 6 MID / 3 FOR) is within every positional range, and the club-limit check is carried through correctly after the changes, peaking at 2. Price uncertainty is handled rigorously: each price is labelled Observed / Estimated / Unknown, the exact minimum combined sell threshold for the preferred pair (11.76M) and for the fallback (5.56M) are computed and shown, and the 0.17M buffer on the preferred package is correctly flagged as conditional rather than safe. Exactly one cheaper fallback (Pieringer) is supplied with an explicit trigger condition and its own arithmetic. The 3-5-2 formation is coherent, the provisional Top 11 (Bredlow; Katić, Kosugi, Makengo; Olise, Aouchiche, Banzuzi, Nwaneri, Suzuki; Kane, Hložek) fits the formation and uses the highest-projected players from the audited squad, and exactly one DEF/MID/FOR star is designated with defensible reasoning for each. The Olise rotation risk and the source conflict between the September 14 model and the later pre-cutoff refresh are both acknowledged and resolved in the correct direction. No menu is presented in place of a package, no transfers are unsupported, and the deadline arithmetic is exact.

rate_the_quality_and_executability_of_th1.00

Rate the quality and executability of the proposed Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 4 plan. A strong report audits the confirmed squad, prioritizes evidence-backed minutes or fixture problems, gives concrete player-out to player-in transfers, preserves the five-transfer allowance, stays within the allowed positional ranges and three-player club limit, treats uncertain prices with explicit feasibility thresholds, supplies at most one genuinely cheaper triggered fallback, and chooses a coherent formation, provisional XI, bench, and one defender, midfielder, and forward star for Top 11 mode. Defensible alternatives and natural variations in wording or organization should receive full credit. Penalize menus instead of a package, unsupported churn, illegal composition, uncomputed uncertainty, or recommendations that do not follow from the frozen evidence. The 4–6 defender rule governs the 15-player squad; it does not make a 3-5-2 Top 11 formation illegal.

Judge model
anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-6
Judge mode
batched
Reasoning effort
medium
Timeout
300s
Full judge output
{"score":5,"reasoning":"This report satisfies every criterion at a high standard. The squad audit is complete, covering all 15 players with individual hold/transfer reasoning tied to specific evidence. The two transfer priorities are tightly evidence-backed: Ebnoutalib's 60 projected points / 30 projected minutes / 0.25 starter factor is the clearest documented minutes problem, and Juranović's Union side visiting a Bayern projected for 88.6% win probability and 3.81 xG is well-supported. Both transfers are concrete player-out-to-player-in pairs. The five-transfer allowance is preserved (2/5 used). The 15-player composition after the preferred package (2 GK / 4 DEF / 6 MID / 3 FOR) is within every positional range, and the club-limit check is carried through correctly after the changes, peaking at 2. Price uncertainty is handled rigorously: each price is labelled Observed / Estimated / Unknown, the exact minimum combined sell threshold for the preferred pair (11.76M) and for the fallback (5.56M) are computed and shown, and the 0.17M buffer on the preferred package is correctly flagged as conditional rather than safe. Exactly one cheaper fallback (Pieringer) is supplied with an explicit trigger condition and its own arithmetic. The 3-5-2 formation is coherent, the provisional Top 11 (Bredlow; Katić, Kosugi, Makengo; Olise, Aouchiche, Banzuzi, Nwaneri, Suzuki; Kane, Hložek) fits the formation and uses the highest-projected players from the audited squad, and exactly one DEF/MID/FOR star is designated with defensible reasoning for each. The Olise rotation risk and the source conflict between the September 14 model and the later pre-cutoff refresh are both acknowledged and resolved in the correct direction. No menu is presented in place of a package, no transfers are unsupported, and the deadline arithmetic is exact."}
evidence_qualityLLM judge1.00
sourishkrout/bundesliga-fantasy-trader_end-to-end1.00

Every sell, buy, hold, formation, and star decision in the report is traceable to a dated source in the frozen snapshot. Juranović's sell is motivated by Union's 10 goals conceded and the Bayern win probability/xG figures (both from the TFT MD4 preview, Sept 14, and the evidence dossier). Ebnoutalib's sell is grounded in the explicit 60-point, 30-minute, 0.25-starter-factor data from the same preview. Katić (5.9M/110 pts), Kosugi (3.6M/109 pts), Hložek (9.2M/183 pts), Aouchiche (6.9M/156 pts), Banzuzi (4.6M/108 pts) and Makengo (5.0M/62 pts) are all cited to TFT Sept 14 estimates. The Juranović 6.43M proxy is correctly sourced to the Bulinews MD3 scout squads of Sept 11 and explicitly flagged as a proxy, not a current sell value. The bank of 3.34M and Olise/Kane observed sell values (37.41M/37.18M) are correctly labeled 'observed.' All other values carry 'estimated' or 'unknown' labels with dates. The Kane/Olise disagreement between the older Sept 14 model (Kane 157 pts/51 min, Olise 114 pts/0.42 starter) and the later pre-cutoff refresh (both top 3 overall) is explicitly stated, and the report consistently favors the later signal while disclosing the risk. TheFantasyTool is treated as supplementary throughout, with a clear disclaimer that its prices are estimates and its 'captain' language does not match the app's three-star system. No facts or figures appear that are absent from the snapshot. The 3-5-2 top 11 with 3 defenders does not violate the 4-6 defender rule because the full 15-player squad contains 4 defenders (confirmed after the proposed Juranović→Katić transfer). Club-limit arithmetic is shown and verified at ≤2 per club. Budget arithmetic is displayed with the exact conditional inequality and a cheaper fallback with its own threshold, satisfying all required affordability disclosures.

rate_whether_every_actionable_sell_buy1.00

Rate whether every actionable sell, buy, hold, formation, and star decision is traceable to dated evidence in the frozen pre-Matchday 4 snapshot. Reward adjacent citations or unmistakable source attribution, correct separation of official facts from expert analysis and model projections, honest treatment of the older-versus-later Kane and Olise projection disagreement, and clear price labels of observed, estimated, or unknown. Judge semantic traceability rather than requiring specific citation prose. Penalize fabricated facts or values, source-name dropping without connection to an action, treating TheFantasyTool as authoritative, or relying on information not present in the snapshot. Do not infer a rules violation merely because a 3-5-2 Top 11 starts three defenders: the separate 4–6 defender rule applies to the full 15-player squad.

Judge model
anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-6
Judge mode
batched
Reasoning effort
medium
Timeout
300s
Full judge output
{"score":5,"reasoning":"Every sell, buy, hold, formation, and star decision in the report is traceable to a dated source in the frozen snapshot. Juranović's sell is motivated by Union's 10 goals conceded and the Bayern win probability/xG figures (both from the TFT MD4 preview, Sept 14, and the evidence dossier). Ebnoutalib's sell is grounded in the explicit 60-point, 30-minute, 0.25-starter-factor data from the same preview. Katić (5.9M/110 pts), Kosugi (3.6M/109 pts), Hložek (9.2M/183 pts), Aouchiche (6.9M/156 pts), Banzuzi (4.6M/108 pts) and Makengo (5.0M/62 pts) are all cited to TFT Sept 14 estimates. The Juranović 6.43M proxy is correctly sourced to the Bulinews MD3 scout squads of Sept 11 and explicitly flagged as a proxy, not a current sell value. The bank of 3.34M and Olise/Kane observed sell values (37.41M/37.18M) are correctly labeled 'observed.' All other values carry 'estimated' or 'unknown' labels with dates. The Kane/Olise disagreement between the older Sept 14 model (Kane 157 pts/51 min, Olise 114 pts/0.42 starter) and the later pre-cutoff refresh (both top 3 overall) is explicitly stated, and the report consistently favors the later signal while disclosing the risk. TheFantasyTool is treated as supplementary throughout, with a clear disclaimer that its prices are estimates and its 'captain' language does not match the app's three-star system. No facts or figures appear that are absent from the snapshot. The 3-5-2 top 11 with 3 defenders does not violate the 4-6 defender rule because the full 15-player squad contains 4 defenders (confirmed after the proposed Juranović→Katić transfer). Club-limit arithmetic is shown and verified at ≤2 per club. Budget arithmetic is displayed with the exact conditional inequality and a cheaper fallback with its own threshold, satisfying all required affordability disclosures."}
skill_activation_evidenceProgrammatic1.00
sourishkrout/bundesliga-fantasy-trader_end-to-end1.00
activation_log_present1.00

Check that the command `test -s /Users/sourishkrout/Projects/personal/2026Q2/sourishkrout-skills/.runme/evals/jobs/2026-09-17__14-20-31/end-to-end__9RAuL5Y/agent/trajectory.json || test -s /Users/sourishkrout/Projects/personal/2026Q2/sourishkrout-skills/.runme/evals/jobs/2026-09-17__14-20-31/end-to-end__9RAuL5Y/agent/oracle.txt` exits with code 0

read_tool_used0.00

Agent used tool 'Read' (trajectory: /Users/sourishkrout/Projects/personal/2026Q2/sourishkrout-skills/.runme/evals/jobs/2026-09-17__14-20-31/end-to-end__9RAuL5Y/agent/trajectory.json)

skill_tool_used0.00

Agent used tool 'Skill' (trajectory: /Users/sourishkrout/Projects/personal/2026Q2/sourishkrout-skills/.runme/evals/jobs/2026-09-17__14-20-31/end-to-end__9RAuL5Y/agent/trajectory.json)

exec_tool_used1.00

Agent used tool 'exec' (trajectory: /Users/sourishkrout/Projects/personal/2026Q2/sourishkrout-skills/.runme/evals/jobs/2026-09-17__14-20-31/end-to-end__9RAuL5Y/agent/trajectory.json)

bundesliga_skill_activation_detected1.00

skill_activation_evidence

task_contractLLM judge1.00
sourishkrout/bundesliga-fantasy-trader_end-to-end1.00

The report satisfies every criterion. (1) The 'What to do now' section opens with a numbered, compact action summary suitable for quick Discord consumption, covering the primary package, the price gate, the fallback trigger, the formation, and the stars in five tight items. (2) All 15 confirmed players are individually audited under named headers with hold/sell/bench reasoning and sourcing. (3) The strongest package (Juranović → Katić, then Ebnoutalib → Hložek) is presented in explicit execution order with proxy arithmetic and a conditional-feasibility verdict. (4) Exactly one cheaper fallback (Pieringer) is included, and it is gated on a concrete, measurable trigger—the live-price inequality failing when staged—with its own arithmetic. (5) The legality section explicitly checks transfer count (2/5), budget (proxy arithmetic plus exact minimum-sell threshold), positional composition (2 GK / 4 DEF / 6 MID / 3 FOR against the 4–6 band rules), and club limits for both the preferred and fallback packages. (6) A 3-5-2 formation is given; the provisional XI lists exactly 11 players (GK + 3 DEF + 5 MID + 2 FOR); the bench names 4 players; and exactly one star is assigned per outfield position group (Katić DEF, Olise MID, Kane FOR). The 3-5-2 correctly uses three defenders in the Top 11 while the 15-player squad holds four, which is consistent with the rules. (7) The deadline is stated in all three required time representations: 20:30 CEST (fixture-local), 18:30 UTC, and 11:30 a.m. PDT (America/Los_Angeles). No criterion is omitted or materially mis-handled.

rate_whether_the_report_fulfills_the_req1.00

Rate whether the report fulfills the requested Matchday 4 deliverable. It should lead with a compact Discord-suitable action summary; audit all 15 confirmed players; give one strongest proposed transfer package in execution order; include no more than one cheaper fallback and only with a concrete trigger; show transfer-count, budget, positional-composition, and club-limit checks; and provide a formation, provisional XI, bench, and exactly one defender, midfielder, and forward star for Top 11 mode. It should also give the deadline in fixture-local time, UTC, and America/Los_Angeles. Judge meaning rather than exact headings, arrow characters, or stock phrases. Repeated discussion of the same primary or fallback package is not an extra package. Remember that 4–6 defenders is the 15-player squad constraint, while a legal 3-5-2 Top 11 formation starts three defenders.

Judge model
anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-6
Judge mode
batched
Reasoning effort
medium
Timeout
300s
Full judge output
{"score":5,"reasoning":"The report satisfies every criterion. (1) The 'What to do now' section opens with a numbered, compact action summary suitable for quick Discord consumption, covering the primary package, the price gate, the fallback trigger, the formation, and the stars in five tight items. (2) All 15 confirmed players are individually audited under named headers with hold/sell/bench reasoning and sourcing. (3) The strongest package (Juranović → Katić, then Ebnoutalib → Hložek) is presented in explicit execution order with proxy arithmetic and a conditional-feasibility verdict. (4) Exactly one cheaper fallback (Pieringer) is included, and it is gated on a concrete, measurable trigger—the live-price inequality failing when staged—with its own arithmetic. (5) The legality section explicitly checks transfer count (2/5), budget (proxy arithmetic plus exact minimum-sell threshold), positional composition (2 GK / 4 DEF / 6 MID / 3 FOR against the 4–6 band rules), and club limits for both the preferred and fallback packages. (6) A 3-5-2 formation is given; the provisional XI lists exactly 11 players (GK + 3 DEF + 5 MID + 2 FOR); the bench names 4 players; and exactly one star is assigned per outfield position group (Katić DEF, Olise MID, Kane FOR). The 3-5-2 correctly uses three defenders in the Top 11 while the 15-player squad holds four, which is consistent with the rules. (7) The deadline is stated in all three required time representations: 20:30 CEST (fixture-local), 18:30 UTC, and 11:30 a.m. PDT (America/Los_Angeles). No criterion is omitted or materially mis-handled."}
temporal_integrityLLM judge1.00
sourishkrout/bundesliga-fantasy-trader_end-to-end1.00

The report explicitly anchors to the frozen cutoff (Thursday, September 17, 2026, 08:48 America/Los_Angeles / 15:48 UTC / 17:48 CEST) and consistently labels all Matchday 4 fixtures as unplayed. The Matchday 4 deadline is given in all three required time zones (20:30 CEST / 18:30 UTC / 11:30 a.m. PDT America/Los_Angeles), matching the evidence file exactly. No Matchday 4 results, scorelines, or post-cutoff information appear anywhere in the report. Pre-MD4 standings are correctly flagged as pre-MD4 context, not results. All sources are dated September 11–17, 2026, within the cutoff window. Transfers are all labeled 'Proposed' and explicitly noted as unexecuted. The report correctly treats Rønnow's availability as unresolved and avoids any hindsight framing. The report is exemplary in its temporal discipline.

rate_whether_the_report_faithfully_opera1.00

Rate whether the report faithfully operates at the frozen cutoff of Thursday, September 17, 2026 at 8:48 a.m. America/Los_Angeles and treats Matchday 4 as unresolved. A strong report uses only information available in the supplied snapshot, includes the exact Matchday 4 deadline in fixture-local time, UTC, and America/Los_Angeles, and avoids actual Matchday 4 results, scorelines, hindsight, or post-cutoff sources. Do not require exact phrases such as 'upcoming' or 'future-facing'. Future fixture dates are allowed, and a prospective rule statement about what begins after Matchday 4 is not hindsight. Penalize claims that reveal eventual outcomes, sources published after the cutoff, or framing that treats Matchday 4 as completed. External network use is scored separately from the trajectory.

Judge model
anthropic/claude-sonnet-4-6
Judge mode
batched
Reasoning effort
medium
Timeout
300s
Full judge output
{"score":5,"reasoning":"The report explicitly anchors to the frozen cutoff (Thursday, September 17, 2026, 08:48 America/Los_Angeles / 15:48 UTC / 17:48 CEST) and consistently labels all Matchday 4 fixtures as unplayed. The Matchday 4 deadline is given in all three required time zones (20:30 CEST / 18:30 UTC / 11:30 a.m. PDT America/Los_Angeles), matching the evidence file exactly. No Matchday 4 results, scorelines, or post-cutoff information appear anywhere in the report. Pre-MD4 standings are correctly flagged as pre-MD4 context, not results. All sources are dated September 11–17, 2026, within the cutoff window. Transfers are all labeled 'Proposed' and explicitly noted as unexecuted. The report correctly treats Rønnow's availability as unresolved and avoids any hindsight framing. The report is exemplary in its temporal discipline."}
Trials
Agent attempts at completing tasks in this job.
end-to-end__9RAuL5Y
sourishkrout/bundesliga-fantasy-trader_end-to-end
1.00completed5m 39s$0.52423,222
Reward Reasoning
For rewards below 1.

No verifier explanations for rewards below 1.

Infra / Local Debug
Job path
https://github.com/sourishkrout/skills/commit/87c56d8af794c20226162510cd0c1d475db31b73
Eval keys
runme-codex__gpt-5.6-sol__regression
Agents
runme-codex
Models
gpt-5.6-sol
Input tokens
222,058
Cache tokens
186,112
Output tokens
15,052